Tag Archives: Vegas Lines

BTL Week 10 NFL Picks

Went 7-5 versus the spread last week. Had some hits, had some misses that I didn’t see coming. But ever so slowly I’m inching closer to the right side of above 50%.

I’m going to keep this week’s pick’s post short. There was a lot that went on this past week that was bigger than football and I myself found myself less concerned with the NFL, fantasy football and making picks against the spread than paying attention the bigger issues. So in the spirit of conciseness. On to the picks.

Last Week: 7-5 / To Date: 69-75

Packers -2.5 over TITANS

REDSKINS -1.5 over Vikings

BUCCANEERS +2.5 over Bears

PANTHERS -3 over Chiefs

EAGLES over Falcons

JETS over Rams

SAINTS -3 over Broncos

JAGUARS -2.5 over Texans

CHARGERS -4 over Dolphins

STEELERS -3 over Cowboys

Niners +14 over CARDINALS

PATRIOTS -7.5 over Seahawks

GIANTS +1 over Bengals 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

BTL Week 8 NFL Picks

The term “peak” has been a common pop culture reference to describe a lot of things in 2016. “Peak television” has been thrown around many times this year to describe its sole place as the needle mover of America’s media gossip.  If not television itself, then the content it has aired that has moved the Twittersphere in every which direction with “peak Trump” or “peak Hillary”. I mean honestly, is there anything from either candidate that would surprise you at this point? But I’m not here to bang the drum of politics, I want to make a point. Regardless of everything that goes on around us, there is one thing that is not even close to “peak” anything right now, and that is the one-time insurmountable king of all sports and related content, the NFL.

With these last two primetime disasters for the NFL; Seattle and Arizona with the “Sunday Night Snoozer” or the blowout in Jacksonville before it was even halftime, I think the NFL is at an all-time low. And when you consider the last decade, it does not look good. To borrow Bill Simmon’s famous line, “are we sure anybody is really good”?

You would have to turn the clock back a little over 10 years to where the league felt as watered down as this. In 2005-2006; Brady and the Pats where on a break (3 SBs in 4yrs), Favre was toiling away in Green Bay (led the NFL in INTs in ’05), Jake Plummer was leading the quasi-resurgence in Denver(I repeat, Jake Plummer), Big Ben and the Steelers had not been born quite yet and Dallas was still pretty terrible. I mean we had Rex Grossman start a Super Bowl against the Colts in 2007!! Rex Grossman! Let that sink in for a moment. I mean can you imagine someone so inept at quarterbacking that he actually led his team to the Super Bowl?!…………..Well……. we did have Peyton Manning’s corpse this past February, so maybe this thing is cyclical, like Clemenza’s theory about mob wars in Godfather Part I (calm down Denver fans, just throwing a little shade, still SB champs).

Anyways, this massive uncertainty week to week has left us borderline degenerate gamblers grasping at the proverbial straws for anything to hang our hat on. Other than Belicheck and Brady (keep in mind they have a shaky defense that can’t generate pressure like they use to), is there anybody you can really trust? Big Ben and his Steelers can’t stay healthy for more than 4 games at a time and cannot be trusted on the road (see Miami). Seattle can’t protect Russell Wilson to generate more than 20 points, much less a touchdown (I had to pick Russell freaking Wilson in fantasy this year)! The young Raiders just might be the AFC’s second best team. We’re only one game away from “what’s wrong with Aaron Rodgers this week” for the 6th time in a calendar year. And Carolina has shown us that the league giveth and the league can taketh away before you can bat an eye.

If the NFL is anything as of late, it’s “peak uncertainty”. It feels like this might be the start of a multi-year slump where no one can be trusted and a lot of these picks hinge less on quarterback play (the gold standard of betting from 2004-2014), to matchup based analytics. And no, I don’t pretend to be a founding member of Football Outsiders, but just keep in that in mind when you throw down junior’s college fund on Andrew Luck over Alex Smith.

On to the picks, I went 10-6 last week to extend my streak of plus .500 to three weeks in a row. I will be keeping the same picks format, and I will get back to giving thoughts on each game, just been a little busy with life at the moment, which is why I went a little longer on the intro.

(Home team in caps, pick in bold)

Last Week: 10-6 / To Date: 56-65 

BENGALS -3 over Redskins

Chiefs -2.5 over COLTS

Raiders -1 over BUCCANERS

SAINTS + 1.5 over Seahawks

Lions +1.5 over TEXANS

Jets -2.5 over BROWNS

Patriots -6.5 over BILLS

PANTHERS +3 over Cardinals

Chargers +4 over BRONCOS

FALCONS -3 over Packers

COWBOYS -4.5 over Eagles

Vikings -4.5 over BEARS

 

-MikeV87

 

 

 

 

 

 

BTL Week 7 NFL Picks

Editors note*****

Totally forgot to post this Saturday night. The picks are unchanged from Saturday (as you can see by my 6 misses so far). As for tonight’s pick, BRONCOS (+8) over Texans.

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As each week that passes, my record against the spread slowly improves to the point of respectability. Last week I went 9-7 against the spread. I took a Jets-like beating in the early games, only to rebound and cover my last 8 games to finish on the right side of .500 for the second week in a row.

So for the 3rd week in a row, I will just be posting picks. The old format will be back when I have more time but for now, why mess up a good thing? (Casino reference)

Now I did miss on my Thursday Night pick (which usually isn’t a good sign for my upcoming picks), but I’ll chalk that up to my “everybody needs to be fired” mood that was consuming me in the days leading up to the Bears game. Nothing really changes for me on the Packers front with their 26-10 win over possibly the worst team in the league in Chicago. Be sure to check out our live cast we did for the game if you want more Packer thoughts. But for now, on to my picks.

(Pick in bold, home team in caps)

Last Week: 9-7 / To Date: 45-59 

Giants -2.5 over RAMS (London Game)

CHIEFS -6 over Saints

TITANS -3 over Colts

Vikings -3 over EAGLES

Browns +10.5 over BENGALS

LIONS -1.5 over Redskins

Raiders +1.5 over JAGUARS

BILLS -2.5 over Dolphins

Ravens +2 over JETS

Buccaneers over NINERS

Chargers +6 over FALCONS

Patriots -7 over STEELERS

Seahawks +1 over CARDINALS

BRONCOS +8 over Texans

BTL Week 6 NFL Picks

As I said last week, I couldn’t have gotten any worse! I returned to the right side of .500 with a 8-6 record against the spread last week. After 5 full weeks, I feel like we are getting to good sense of what teams are. The Patriots have returned to the ultimate reliable with “Tom Terrific” back as the signal caller. The Steelers seem to be a lock as well, just as long they stay out of their own way. The Vikings probably cap out the teams where, at this point, you know what you’re getting.

So I struggled out of the gate but I like what I’m getting this week. It is time to start stacking some major wins here so maybe, just maybe, The Rivera will ask me to be the junior version of “Cousin Sal Sure Thing”. If not, there’s always The Orleans door to knock on!

So last week I changed the format because I didn’t have enough time for commentary. And guess what?! We’re sticking with it!! On with the picks. What follows will be a complete visceral and gun to the head opinion. Bet at your caution 🙂

(Pick in bold, home team in caps)

Last Week: 8-6 / To Date: 36-51 

BILLS – 9 over Niners

Eagles -2.5 over REDSKINS

TITANS -7 over Browns

Ravens +3.5 over GIANTS

Panthers -3 over SAINTS

Jaguars +1.5 over BEARS

Rams +3 over LIONS

DOLPHINS +7 over Steelers

PATRIOTS +7.5 over Bengals

Chiefs -2.5 over RAIDERS

SEAHAWKS +6.5 over Falcons

PACKERS -4.5 over Cowboys

TEXANS -3 over Colts

CARDINALS -6.5 over Jets

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

BTL Week 5 NFL Picks

There is a scene in Indiana Jones and the Last Crusade where Walter Donovan tells Indiana Jones before he leaves for Venice to “trust no one”. Indiana never heeded his advice as he fell for the beautiful Fräulein Dr. Elsha Schneider,  who would turn out to be a Nazi spy.

Last week I felt the  same. My motto was,”Trust no one but Belicheck”. And even I found a way to screw that up! An absolute horrid week going 3-13 against the spread. To be fair the football season has been very wonky so far. But I feel a turn around coming this week because it can’t get any worse. I already nailed the Thursday Night Game, something that has eluded for the most part of the season.

I’m also changing the format just for this week. I don’t have enough time to give my thoughts on each pick, so this week, just the pick only will be posted. Be back next week with the old format and hopefully a much better record!

Last Week: 3-13 / To Date: 28-45

 

Cleveland (+10.5) over PATRIOTS

LIONS (+3.5) over Eagles

Bears (+4.5) over COLTS

Titans (+3.5) over DOLPHINS

RAVENS (-3.5) over Redskins

VIKINGS (-7) over Texans

STEELERS (-7) over Jets

Falcons (+4.5) over BRONCOS

Bengals (-2) over COWBOYS

Bills (+1) over RAMS

OAKLAND (-3.5) over Chargers

Giants (+7) over PACKERS

PANTHERS over Buccaneers (no spread because of the Cam Newton concussion)

 

Best Bets:

Bengals (-2) over COWBOYS

Giants (+7) over PACKERS

VIKINGS (-7) over Texans

 

 

-MikeV87

 

 

 

BTL Week 4 NFL Picks

So me and Jon Snow have a few things in common. We both stand under six feet tall (rumors are the King in the North is maybe 5’7″), both of us look good in long hair (see my Dave Grohl phase circa 2012) and WE BOTH KNOW NOTHING!!!

6-10 against the spread in Week 3.  Pittsburgh the most reliable thing in the NFL (outside of NE) got lambasted by the second coming of Jesus Christ (Carson Wentz). The Rams somehow scored 37 points. And I forgot the holy grail of gambling rules; never take the West coast team traveling East and playing the morning game! Dammit Arizona, I knew you were frauds!!

I did say last week felt a little wonky. But wow, not even close on some of these. Which goes to show you, making gambling a life choice will land you on the street or in the cross-hairs of some very unsavory characters real quick. BUT, I do this for fun, so no Cousin Vinny looking to break my thumbs. Speaking of cousins, even the untouchable Cousin Sal is off to a slow start this season. Not as bad as me but hey, not everyone is perfect.

So I got a busy week coming up so I’m doing all my picks before the Thursday Night game (TNF), as to usually picking the Thursday game and then coming out with the remaining games Saturday morning.

Here we go, trust nothing except for Belicheck.

Last Week: 6-10 / To Date: 22-32 :/

(Pick in bold, home team in caps)

Dolphins +7.5 over BENGALS

The Bengals could very easily be 0-3 and really should be. Andy Dalton has been running for his life for the majority of the first three games. His offense is deprived of weapons and Miami brings a quality defense to town that should limit Cincinnati’s offensive upside. The Bengals  have failed to pull away from anyone lately and I don’t see why the Dolphins can’t stay within a touchdown of them. I like the Bengals to win but the Fins to cover.

COLTS -2.5 over Jaguars

The infamous London Game, this contest has marked the firing point for many coaches and GMs of years past. And it really couldn’t have drawn two better contestants to get possibly axed. The Colts barely escaped with the win last week thanks to a series of fortunate events that turned in their favor. The Jaguars are a dumpster fire and this loss may just put an end to one of the worst tenures by a head coach in NFL history! Now I don’t think either team is good enough to blowout the other and seal the coaching fate for the other side. However, one team has Andrew Luck and the other has Blake “I make my stats in garbage time” Bortles. Take Luck to win.

Titans +5 over TEXANS

It has been a rough week for Houston. First they get waxed on Thursday night by the Patriots. Then, their franchise cornerstone J.J. Watt gets put on IR for the year and his career may be in jeopardy. And now they’re laying 5 points at home? Sorry but I think the mental toll of the Pats ass-whipping combined with the Watt news has this team distracted. And it’s not like the Titans are bad, they hung with a top 5 Minnesota team in Week 1 until a couple of ball bounces didn’t go their way. They hung with Oakland last weekend as well. The Titans can run the ball and play good defense, that is a recipe to keep any game close. Take the points and I like the Titans to win.

Browns +7.5 over REDSKINS

The Browns are 0-3 but they have been more frisky than terrible. They hung with both Baltimore and Miami till the very end and their only no doubt loss came to what may be a top 5-7 Eagles team in Week 1. As for the Redskins, nothing in their first three games leaves me impressed. They look terrible and Cousins is the main reason for that, I just don’t see swallowing 7.5 at home for the Skins when they haven’t been able to separate from anyone of the last three weeks. These are two terrible teams and I expect it to be close. Grab the points and the Browns to cover, Redskins to win though, barely.

JETS + 2.5 over Seattle

This all depends on the health of Russell Wilson. That knee injury looked bad last week, I am surprised that he is even considering playing. With that said, this would’ve been a tough game even with Russell healthy as the Jets pass rush is likely to make life hell for any quarterback and Seattle’s Achilles Heel so far this season has been protecting Wilson. I know Ryan Fitzpatrick looked absolutely terrible last week and there is a strong chance Eric Decker misses this game BUT, I will not fall victim to my golden rule of gambling two weeks in a row! I’m picking against the West coast team traveling across country and playing the early game. This feels like an ugly war of attrition contest, and I like the Jets to cover and possibly win.

PATRIOTS over Bills

The line is even as we do not yet know if Jimmy Garoppolo, Jacoby Brissett or even Julian Edelman will be suiting up for quarterback. And it doesn’t matter, it will never matter because this is Belicheck and 16-0 is not out of the question this year. The Patriots are coming off a mini bye, they’re playing at home and going up against Rex Ryan who Belicheck has owned as of late. The Bills showed some spunk last week but Carson Palmer very well could have pulled a Ryan Fitzpatrick with his interceptions (6 instead of 4). The Pats don’t turn the ball over, their defense is probably the best version we’ve seen in years and Josh McDaniels is offensively light years ahead of whatever Rex might try to dial up. Pats at home to win and start 4-0 without Brady, if you don’t think that means something to Belicheck, then you don’t know him at all (not that I personally do but that sounded like a good line).

Panthers -3 over FALCONS

The Panthers have sputtered to a 1-2 start, eclipsing the total amount of losses they had in the entire 2015 season. But as Ron Rivera said, they haven’t played “a bunch of slappies” either. The Falcons looked good on MNF as they ran through, over and around the hapless Saints defense, then again, I think the local high school team could’ve that night. The Panthers are more talented, they have a legit defense to keep Atlanta’s running game in check and I think Cam breaks out with one of those Cam games. Gun to my head I can’t go with Atlanta as a home dog. Carolina in a touchdown win.

Raiders +3.5 over RAVENS

The Raiders grinded out a tough road win over Tennessee last weekend. Meanwhile, grinding it out seems to be the only thing Jon Harbaugh’s team can do lately. Baltimore is one of five undefeated teams left and they might just be the worst 3-0 team ever with squeakers over the Bills, Browns and Jaguars. Not exactly a murderers row of opponents. This is a game where the Raiders need to win to solidify their place in the upper tier of the AFC. And I think they can, just based on talent alone. But every year there is a team that somehow manages to stay undefeated that no one believes in, and the Ravens smell like that team. But, I just can’t lay the 3.5 points to a team that talent wise, is not on the Raiders level. Baltimore could squeak another one out, but I like the Raiders to cover.

Lions -3 over BEARS

The Bears are the #1 contender for worst team in the NFL. The Lions are not good but they aren’t that bad either. I know the Lions are without some of their biggest names on defense but I just don’t see how Chicago gets to 23 points without some type a day from hell from Matthew Stafford. It is a division game and nothing about Brian Hoyer and Alson “I’m questionable to play this week” Jeffrey scare me, not even with rookie Jordan Howard getting a full workload. Lions to win and win impressively.

Broncos -3 over BUCCANEERS

These are two teams I was completely wrong on entering the season. Most everybody talked themselves out of Denver repeating the same basic formula that led to the SB 50 win, kicking the living shit out of offenses week in and week out. I was on the Tampa hype train early and still think they have strides to make but if I were betting on this game, I’d look at one thing. The defenses. Denver is competing for the leagues best (with Minnesota) and Tampa has allowed nearly 34.0 points/game to start the season. Including letting the punch-less Rams put up 37 on them. I didn’t know that was humanly possible. Defense travels and QB Trevor Siemian might just be the latest in John Elway’s genius decisions that have made Denver’s roster a living nightmare for the rest of the league. Take Denver laying the 3 points.

CARDINALS -8 over Rams

Last week’s performance in Buffalo validates my gut feeling that Carson Palmer is not an elite QB. I think the Cardinals go as he goes and with him getting up there in age, he can’t be trusted week in and week out. I do trust Bruce Arians to have the words needed to get his team right in time for this week’s divisional tilt with the high flying Rams (sarcasm). This feels like a regression towards the mean game. I expect the Cardinals to lock up Gurley and force Case Keenum to beat them with Tavon Austin passes 5 yards behind the line of scrimmage (thats what $30 million guaranteed gets you Rams). Case Keenum forcing passes into that Cardinals secondary? This could get ugly quick. Take Arizona giving the 8.

CHARGERS -4 over Saints

It’s been a wonky year so far and maybe, just maybe the threat of relocation has riled up the SD fan base into making the Chargers a legit home field advantage again. Or maybe the Saints are fielding the worst defense we have ever seen. It’s a tough call. I don’t like the Saints traveling West and playing outdoors. I like the way Philip Rivers has operated the offense this year while losing cornerstones Keenan Allen and Danny Woodhead. Despite Brees returning to San Diego for the first time sine he left, sometimes you just can’t outscore a bad defense. And Monday night’s showing has me convinced that the Saints may win maybe 4 games this year? Take the Bolts at home.

NINERS +2 over Cowboys

The Dez Bryant injury news continues to worsen. And after getting burned repeatedly the last two weeks by Carolina and Seattle (both on the road), maybe SF just needs some home cooking to get themselves back on track. Yes the Cowboys looked impressive last Sunday night, against the worst team in the league playing their backup QB, I would hope they played well. Something about this game tells me to go with the Niners. I think it is going to be a close game, I’m banking on Dez Bryant not being a 100% (possibly missing the game), and for Dak Prescott to run into a situation where he has to win a game on his own. Oh, and don’t be surprised if we see Colin Kaepernick make an appearance if Blaine Gabbert struggles again. Niners to cover and possibly win.

STEELERS -4.5 over Chiefs

I should’ve known, never make any statements that say “team such and such is one of the most reliable teams in the NFL” (even though I just did 8 paragraphs up, but different rules apply to Belicheck). This feels like a get right game for Pittsburgh. Le’veon Bell makes his annual return from a September suspension (have him on my fantasy team, fist pump!), the Steelers just got embarrassed by “the pick that saved Philly” and is Kansas City really going to get 6 interceptions from Big Ben? Yeah, I didn’t think so. I like the Steelers to eventually pull away from KC because I just don’t think they can match them point for point. Steelers at home giving 4.5

Giants +5 over MINNESOTA

The surprise of the NFL so far has been that the Vikings haven’t skipped a beat after losing both their starting quarterback and running back. The defense is as good as it gets, and it just may be better than the one in Denver. Zimmer is a great coach who finally got his shot (ala Bruce Arians). Sam Bradford has been the perfect acquisition for a team that relies on not making mistakes. So why am I taking the Giants after last week’s Odell vs. kicking net fiasco pretty much summed up their loss? The Giants live for this game, the Vikings offensive line is banged up and the Giants pass rush is legit. The Giants also have been the second best run defense so far (GB #1) and have suffocated the run game. I see a defensive battle in this game. Eli has been as efficient as any QB in the league and while he can be prone to the dumb turnover, lets not act like Sam Bradford still isn’t Sam Bradford. I like the Vikings to still win but 5 is too much to be laying for a Giant team that usually performs in prime time. The G-Men to cover.

 

 

Best Bets:

Lions -3 over BEARS

PATRIOTS over Bills

STEELERS -4.5 over Chiefs

-MikeV87

 

 

 

 

BTL Week 2 NFL Picks

6-10 against the spread last week. OUCH!!! Thats almost as bad as the beating our native Rams took!

I’m not going to sugar coat it, I fell behind the eight-ball faster with my picks than Andrew Luck and the Colts did against the Cooter led Lions last week. But in the world of gambling, there is always tomorrow! There is always another game and so far in Week 2 I am 1-0 with my pick of the Jets +1 over BILLS. Here are my picks (I can’t get any worse right)

(Home team in caps, pick in bold)

Last Week: 6-10 / To Date: 7-10

Week 2:

STEELERS -3.5 over Bengals

The NFL Game of the Week is first up on the docket. The Steelers had as an impressive win as anyone did last week with Big Ben in mid-season form, Antonio Brown un-guardable  and being able to run the ball at will. Then again it was against the Redskins, are they really that good? As for the Bengals, they squeaked out a win versus a quality team in the Jets. This screams that old talking head reference, “you know, you can throw records out the window when these two teams matchup” Phil Simms-esque type of line. Bengals are a good team, but can they put up 30 plus points on the road, i doubt it. Only thing that stops this Steelers team is health and Belicheck, and the Bengals can’t count on either on Sunday.

Titans +6  over LIONS

I believe in a Cooter led Lion’s offense. I love their addition of Marvin Jones, the “Catch Brothers” Theo Riddick and Ameer Abdullah and Matthew “I may finally be putting it all together” Stafford. They hung 39 on the road versus the Colts. Two problems though, the Colts might really, really suck at football (sans Luck), and the Lions are still the Lions. Do they really deserve to be getting 6 points at home? I still believe that the Titans were victimized by a top 5 NFL defense that once of couple of balls bounced the wrong way, their fate was sealed against the Vikings. The Lions don’t own anything close to that defense. If the line was -3 or lower, I’d grab the Lions. For now I’m gonna need one more week to see if Jim Bob Cooter is the next Mike Martz. Take the Titans and the points.

Ravens -6 over BROWNS

The experts are talking a lot of Ravens playoff sleeper buzz, and I’m buying. They had the injury-season from hell last year. A coach named Harbaugh still calls the shots and they get to face the ass crack of the NFL in their old ancestral home. Don’t over think this one, the Browns are tanking and the Ravens know what a 2-0 start usually means in the Harbaugh era.

Cowboys +3 over REDSKINS

Yep, get use to it, taking another road dog. This one can really go either way, but gun to my head, I like Dallas to control the clock and the game with their elite rushing attack. I know Zeke Elliot got off to a slow start last game but I look for that to be corrected this week. Cousins really disappointed me on Monday night, I’ve already dropped him from my fantasy team. Too many missed throws that could’ve been had. Division games are always close, it could be a loser leaves town match. I like the Cowboys to keep hope alive and I’m getting points.

Saints +5 over GIANTS

I didn’t get to watch last week’s game for the Giants (too busy crushing beers at the river), so I can’t tell you if their off-season makeover on the defensive side of the ball is completely legit. It is not like the Giants lit up a hapless Dallas D either. They’re home so I expect for them to play better against possibly even worse defense in New Orleans. So why am I going with the Saints as the road dog? I just can’t get past the 5 points, -3 then yes, I’d take the G-Men. 5 seems a little much with the firepower the Saints have to make it interesting, despite Brees’ road struggles. I like the Giants to win a close shootout, but the Saints to cover.

PANTHERS -13.5 over Niners

I am usually not one to take the home favorite with this high of a spread (especially my misfire w/Seattle last week). The Niners looked very good against possibly the worst NFL offense in quite a while. I was listening to Michael Lombardi this week on BSPN (Bill Simmons Podcast Network), he had some pretty interesting facts on the Niners offense. Most revealing was that Gabbert’s yard/completion was below 6 yards. If the Niners can’t stretch the field vertically, you can forget about running on the Panthers (despite last week vs DEN). You have an angry Panthers team that absolutely cannot start 0-2. If the Panthers start out fast, like they did all of last year, I don’t see the Niners making comeback. Despite my fears of a late backdoor cover, this is a statement game for Carolina.

Dolphins +6.5 over PATRIOTS

Gronk is very iffy to play. The Dolphins defense played fantastic in Seattle last weekend and the Patriots may be due for a let down game. I always have faith in Belicheck but for the Pats to be giving 6.5 with Garoppolo, just seems a little high for me. I think the mantra of the Brady-less Pats during these four games is to just win, no matter the fashion. I like the Pats to win but my gut says watch out for the Dolphins to make things interesting. Especially without Gronk.

HOUSTON -2.5 over Chiefs

That was not a pretty win by KC last weekend to let a weaker Chargers team hang with them blow for blow until the end. Houston has all the right things in place to make a unabated run for the AFC South crown, but it all comes down to the health of J.J. Watt and the arm of Brock Osweiler. With the plethora of skill players now at his disposal, Brock has the ability to play any way they want. Ground and pound with Lamar Miller, outside the hashes with the human highlight reel DeAndre Hopkins and a suitable running mate in Will Fuller. If Watt and his talented defensive mates play up to par, I don’t think KC can keep up. Take Houston.

RAMS +6.5 over Seahawks

I am very torn on this game. In my opinion it goes either of two ways, a Seahawks blowout (w/possible Jeff Fisher firing, I don’t care if he just signed an extension!!) or a an ugly knock em out street fight like last week with the Dolphins. The Rams have always had the Seahawks number, including two wins against them last year. The Seahawks offensive line is an absolute disaster, the Rams boast probably the best front four in the business. I just can’t see Aaron Donald and Robert Quinn being quite for two weeks in a row. Especially with the first regular season game in LA in over 20 years, I know my So Cal faithful will be boozed up like Eagles fans at The Vet back in the 80s! I still believe the Seahawks squeak this one out but Donald and Quinn will make Russell Wilson’s life a living hell while doing so. Rams to cover.

Buccaneers +7 over CARDINALS

I was literally just about to put Cards -7 up there and then I realized that my instincts about them being frauds (more specifically Carson Palmer, the rest of the team may be legit) after last years playoff run maybe right. The only reason I picked the Cards to cover last weekend was because I thought Belicheck was throwing away this game when Gronkowski was ruled out. I think the Cardinals are really talented but I am not sold on Carson Palmer. I think he’s hit his regression this year and I think Jameis and his Bucs have enough spunk to really make things interesting in this game. The Buccaneers have all the weapons to go blow for blow with the Cards. “In Shape James” (nod to Bill Simmons), is athletically gifted enough to evade the Cards pass rush and make plays downfield. The only caveat is that the Bucs played a horrid Atlanta team that may be bottom 5. I’m sticking with my gut, the Cards are not for real and 7 is too much to be laying with this talented of a team coming to town.

Jaguars +3 over CHARGERS

I cannot for the life of me figure out why the Chargers are getting -3 in this game, even with the home field advantage (which they don’t have if you’ve ever been to a game there). The Jags played my Packers down to the wire in Week 1. I knew the game was going to be tough but the heat was way more of a factor than i thought it would be. The Chargers played great in KC, recent history has shown us that they are a far better away team than home team. I just don’t see a Bolts win here in the wake of Keenan Allen being done for the year. I think the Jags, especially defensively are good enough take get the to job done. Take the Jags and the points.

RAIDERS -4.5 over Falcons

Momentum is a real thing, despite what Bill Barnwell may tell you. The Raiders have plenty of it after Jack Del Rio just beat Sean Payton in a nut-sack game to see whose balls were bigger. The Raiders have the makings of elite talent everywhere you look. And now they get to come home and face an abominable Falcons team that just got shellacked by Jameis and his Bucs? The only thing that worries me is this is a young team and the ability to repeat success and stack quality wins without getting too ahead of themselves is the last thing a good team needs to do to before becoming a legit contender. We’ll find out this weekend.

Colts +6 over Broncos

The Colts maybe in there first steps to going 6-10 and getting Pagano fired, or they maybe be stepping into their first upset victory of a 10-6 playoff season. I have no clue, this team is so jekell and hyde it could be anywhere in between. I do know this, the Broncos, until I see Trevor Siemian take some major strides in pushing the ball downfield, should never be favored by more than 4 against anyone with the offensive firepower of Andrew Luck. I don’t care how good your defense is, I don’t see you blowing out the Colts and holding a double digit lead without him mounting a comeback. It’s in their DNA, they get down and then they rally. Plus the Colts always play Denver well. Something tells me that the Colts can more than cover, and maybe even win. The first one to 20 points takes this game.

VIKINGS +2.5 over Packers

If you have ever listened to me on the BTL Packers Podcast, you know me as the pessimistic Packers fan. I prefer the term realist but call it what you want. I was very concerned about the first two games. I foresaw the tough game with the Jags in the heat. I am even more wary of the Vikings game in their new dome, AP coming off a bad game looking to make amends and that crazy talented Zimmer-coached Vikings defense who has always kept Rodgers under wraps. It is going to be a close game either way. I don’t see the Packers being able to pull away even if they play well. I like Rodgers with all his receiving weapons and I like the GB secondary. Thats about it. I am very worried about the middle of the Packers defense against the run, I am worried about a new addition to the offensive line playing his first nationally televised game in a dome that may or may not have crowd noise piped in. I think Eddie Lacy is still one more off-season away from fully getting back into shape. And I am worried about the most annoying trend ithat is happening in big Packer games lately; someone vital to the defense/offense ends up out for the game or worse sometime in the mid-first quarter. I think the Vikings knew they could squeak past the Titans, not show any relevant film of a Bradford led offense. I expect the Vikings best shot, because I know Zimmer has them convinced they can still win the division. I don’t like picking against my team, but take the Vikings to cover and possibly win.

Eagles +3 over BEARS

Not an entertaining matchup, I don’t have a whole lot to say here. I like the talent on the Eagles slightly better than the Bears. It will be Carson Wentz’s first road game and a nationally televised one at that. I was impressed by what some football experts had to say about his first start. I’ll take Philly and the points.

Best Bets:

Jags +3 over CHARGERS

Ravens -6 over BROWNS

STEELERS -3.5 over Bengals

-MikeV87