Monthly Archives: October 2016

BTL Week 8 NFL Picks

The term “peak” has been a common pop culture reference to describe a lot of things in 2016. “Peak television” has been thrown around many times this year to describe its sole place as the needle mover of America’s media gossip.  If not television itself, then the content it has aired that has moved the Twittersphere in every which direction with “peak Trump” or “peak Hillary”. I mean honestly, is there anything from either candidate that would surprise you at this point? But I’m not here to bang the drum of politics, I want to make a point. Regardless of everything that goes on around us, there is one thing that is not even close to “peak” anything right now, and that is the one-time insurmountable king of all sports and related content, the NFL.

With these last two primetime disasters for the NFL; Seattle and Arizona with the “Sunday Night Snoozer” or the blowout in Jacksonville before it was even halftime, I think the NFL is at an all-time low. And when you consider the last decade, it does not look good. To borrow Bill Simmon’s famous line, “are we sure anybody is really good”?

You would have to turn the clock back a little over 10 years to where the league felt as watered down as this. In 2005-2006; Brady and the Pats where on a break (3 SBs in 4yrs), Favre was toiling away in Green Bay (led the NFL in INTs in ’05), Jake Plummer was leading the quasi-resurgence in Denver(I repeat, Jake Plummer), Big Ben and the Steelers had not been born quite yet and Dallas was still pretty terrible. I mean we had Rex Grossman start a Super Bowl against the Colts in 2007!! Rex Grossman! Let that sink in for a moment. I mean can you imagine someone so inept at quarterbacking that he actually led his team to the Super Bowl?!…………..Well……. we did have Peyton Manning’s corpse this past February, so maybe this thing is cyclical, like Clemenza’s theory about mob wars in Godfather Part I (calm down Denver fans, just throwing a little shade, still SB champs).

Anyways, this massive uncertainty week to week has left us borderline degenerate gamblers grasping at the proverbial straws for anything to hang our hat on. Other than Belicheck and Brady (keep in mind they have a shaky defense that can’t generate pressure like they use to), is there anybody you can really trust? Big Ben and his Steelers can’t stay healthy for more than 4 games at a time and cannot be trusted on the road (see Miami). Seattle can’t protect Russell Wilson to generate more than 20 points, much less a touchdown (I had to pick Russell freaking Wilson in fantasy this year)! The young Raiders just might be the AFC’s second best team. We’re only one game away from “what’s wrong with Aaron Rodgers this week” for the 6th time in a calendar year. And Carolina has shown us that the league giveth and the league can taketh away before you can bat an eye.

If the NFL is anything as of late, it’s “peak uncertainty”. It feels like this might be the start of a multi-year slump where no one can be trusted and a lot of these picks hinge less on quarterback play (the gold standard of betting from 2004-2014), to matchup based analytics. And no, I don’t pretend to be a founding member of Football Outsiders, but just keep in that in mind when you throw down junior’s college fund on Andrew Luck over Alex Smith.

On to the picks, I went 10-6 last week to extend my streak of plus .500 to three weeks in a row. I will be keeping the same picks format, and I will get back to giving thoughts on each game, just been a little busy with life at the moment, which is why I went a little longer on the intro.

(Home team in caps, pick in bold)

Last Week: 10-6 / To Date: 56-65 

BENGALS -3 over Redskins

Chiefs -2.5 over COLTS

Raiders -1 over BUCCANERS

SAINTS + 1.5 over Seahawks

Lions +1.5 over TEXANS

Jets -2.5 over BROWNS

Patriots -6.5 over BILLS

PANTHERS +3 over Cardinals

Chargers +4 over BRONCOS

FALCONS -3 over Packers

COWBOYS -4.5 over Eagles

Vikings -4.5 over BEARS

 

-MikeV87

 

 

 

 

 

 

BTL Week 7 NFL Picks

Editors note*****

Totally forgot to post this Saturday night. The picks are unchanged from Saturday (as you can see by my 6 misses so far). As for tonight’s pick, BRONCOS (+8) over Texans.

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As each week that passes, my record against the spread slowly improves to the point of respectability. Last week I went 9-7 against the spread. I took a Jets-like beating in the early games, only to rebound and cover my last 8 games to finish on the right side of .500 for the second week in a row.

So for the 3rd week in a row, I will just be posting picks. The old format will be back when I have more time but for now, why mess up a good thing? (Casino reference)

Now I did miss on my Thursday Night pick (which usually isn’t a good sign for my upcoming picks), but I’ll chalk that up to my “everybody needs to be fired” mood that was consuming me in the days leading up to the Bears game. Nothing really changes for me on the Packers front with their 26-10 win over possibly the worst team in the league in Chicago. Be sure to check out our live cast we did for the game if you want more Packer thoughts. But for now, on to my picks.

(Pick in bold, home team in caps)

Last Week: 9-7 / To Date: 45-59 

Giants -2.5 over RAMS (London Game)

CHIEFS -6 over Saints

TITANS -3 over Colts

Vikings -3 over EAGLES

Browns +10.5 over BENGALS

LIONS -1.5 over Redskins

Raiders +1.5 over JAGUARS

BILLS -2.5 over Dolphins

Ravens +2 over JETS

Buccaneers over NINERS

Chargers +6 over FALCONS

Patriots -7 over STEELERS

Seahawks +1 over CARDINALS

BRONCOS +8 over Texans

BTL Packers Podcast: Packers vs Bears – Live Cast

So I decided to do a live audio cast of the Thursday Night Football Game of the Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers. In what my brother and I considered a “turning point” game in this 2016 Packers season, we wanted live raw thoughts on the current state of Aaron Rodgers, Mike McCarthy and the Packers organization for this possible “season altering” game.

We give you a 15 minutes pre/current game banter and visit after the end of every quarter with our thoughts. Unfortunately our longest segment got deleted by GarageBand on the very end. So I sum up our 30 minute talk into about 5 minutes.

Give us a listen as we talk about the possible downfall of the Packers, then go optimistic about Green Bay first two drives, to all-the-sudden switch to firing the entire front office. We finally ended up with a satisfied but cautious outlook on the Packers season going forward.

 

 

And as always; share the podcast, give us a like and enjoy.

 

MikeV87

 

 

BTL Week 6 NFL Picks

As I said last week, I couldn’t have gotten any worse! I returned to the right side of .500 with a 8-6 record against the spread last week. After 5 full weeks, I feel like we are getting to good sense of what teams are. The Patriots have returned to the ultimate reliable with “Tom Terrific” back as the signal caller. The Steelers seem to be a lock as well, just as long they stay out of their own way. The Vikings probably cap out the teams where, at this point, you know what you’re getting.

So I struggled out of the gate but I like what I’m getting this week. It is time to start stacking some major wins here so maybe, just maybe, The Rivera will ask me to be the junior version of “Cousin Sal Sure Thing”. If not, there’s always The Orleans door to knock on!

So last week I changed the format because I didn’t have enough time for commentary. And guess what?! We’re sticking with it!! On with the picks. What follows will be a complete visceral and gun to the head opinion. Bet at your caution 🙂

(Pick in bold, home team in caps)

Last Week: 8-6 / To Date: 36-51 

BILLS – 9 over Niners

Eagles -2.5 over REDSKINS

TITANS -7 over Browns

Ravens +3.5 over GIANTS

Panthers -3 over SAINTS

Jaguars +1.5 over BEARS

Rams +3 over LIONS

DOLPHINS +7 over Steelers

PATRIOTS +7.5 over Bengals

Chiefs -2.5 over RAIDERS

SEAHAWKS +6.5 over Falcons

PACKERS -4.5 over Cowboys

TEXANS -3 over Colts

CARDINALS -6.5 over Jets

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

BTL Packers Podcast 3.3

And we are back after 2 straight wins that have Packers fans backing themselves off the ledge a little bit. Since we last were on; Green Bay held on for a 34-27 win against the Lions and they silenced the Giants on Sunday Night Football 23-16.

In this episode we do a round of (1:49) The Good, The Bad and The Ugly to summarize our thoughts on the last two weeks. We define what the Packers are 4 games in (21:00). And we look ahead to this weeks showdown with (28:00) Dallas and touch a little on the Thursday Night game with the Bears (I mean, come on, they’re the Bears!).

So enjoy, and feel free to leave any comments and like and share the podcast. We’ll be back soon, possibly a week, we’ll see. Till then, catch you on the flip side.

 

-Mikev87

BTL Week 5 NFL Picks

There is a scene in Indiana Jones and the Last Crusade where Walter Donovan tells Indiana Jones before he leaves for Venice to “trust no one”. Indiana never heeded his advice as he fell for the beautiful Fräulein Dr. Elsha Schneider,  who would turn out to be a Nazi spy.

Last week I felt the  same. My motto was,”Trust no one but Belicheck”. And even I found a way to screw that up! An absolute horrid week going 3-13 against the spread. To be fair the football season has been very wonky so far. But I feel a turn around coming this week because it can’t get any worse. I already nailed the Thursday Night Game, something that has eluded for the most part of the season.

I’m also changing the format just for this week. I don’t have enough time to give my thoughts on each pick, so this week, just the pick only will be posted. Be back next week with the old format and hopefully a much better record!

Last Week: 3-13 / To Date: 28-45

 

Cleveland (+10.5) over PATRIOTS

LIONS (+3.5) over Eagles

Bears (+4.5) over COLTS

Titans (+3.5) over DOLPHINS

RAVENS (-3.5) over Redskins

VIKINGS (-7) over Texans

STEELERS (-7) over Jets

Falcons (+4.5) over BRONCOS

Bengals (-2) over COWBOYS

Bills (+1) over RAMS

OAKLAND (-3.5) over Chargers

Giants (+7) over PACKERS

PANTHERS over Buccaneers (no spread because of the Cam Newton concussion)

 

Best Bets:

Bengals (-2) over COWBOYS

Giants (+7) over PACKERS

VIKINGS (-7) over Texans

 

 

-MikeV87